Moderator: Hello everyone netizens! Few days ago, when we immersed in the joy of Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the U.S. financial markets of Wall Street, the oscillation: 158-year-old Lehman bank failures, the U.S. stock market crash, AIG has also been forecast may collapse within a few days. At that time, China may also feel that the public she was more distant from these changes, but China's stock market fell below 2,000 points yesterday, the Chinese government to cut interest rates from the implementation of the policy yesterday, we feel that in the U.S. financial Comparison of the crisis from their closer. So, in this economic environment, China's economy will change what happened, how these economic changes will affect the property market? today invited to Han with real estate experts to do a deep reading of this . First, you analyze the failure of banks to Lehman what kind of impact the global economy, and further what kind of things will happen then?
association of real estate and financial impact should not be underestimated
Han with: I did not do on this issue is very in-depth study, but when I think of a problem, the collapse of Lehman Brothers bank is not caused by it, the reason should be due to subprime, sub-prime any connection with the Housing between real estate there. When the United States to raise interest rates 17 consecutive times since its economy is prosperous and thriving condition, and in this case the virtual extension of the price rise. U.S. banking system with China's banking system is different from the U.S. real estate loans have specialized agencies, investment banks now have more of an investment or acquisition of assets listed, and so packaged and function of this business, they do not do this business savings. If we go farther back to see, once we see the U.S. economy a few years there is a lot of vibration, high-tech network will have some crazy times, it seems to bring the impact of global destruction, to end the world's economic landscape will be affected by their involvement. And this from a sub- began to have ripple effects into the Chinese market, property market and the stock market, in fact, because of falling prices caused by the subprime, has now formed a financial crisis, these institutional investors have started to collapse. In the United States government has repeatedly rescue the situation, This result also appears to illustrate the linkage between real estate and finance should not be underestimated, Greenspan said that this is the case of hundred years. but they are not in the stock market's performance on the performance of our stock markets slumped in a big extent, participation in the sector, like the Lehman bank in this area but will become more direct, our bank has to buy his product was partly a direct impact, it is more psychological impact and influence. U.S. financial markets with China financial markets, such as JP Morgan also has investments in mainland China business, especially real estate, some even went to the stock market is related to the full withdrawal if the domestic stock and property markets is more difficult to sustain. A year ago we are still concern excess funds, it may already exist at that time signs of potential, but unfortunately, we see only the surface of the case, in fact, at certain times will affect the global financial turmoil In 1998, how much of our ? While we were still relatively closed, in fact, the situation of our economy has been greatly affected and impact. RMB was not devalued by the market impact is minimal, while the 1997-2003 has been a decline in house prices trend. In the process at that time, the economy has been in a situation of deflation, when we cut down 8 times, while the CPI is negative three. Now, China's economic links with the international community more and more aspects of the export and opening of the market, many foreign investors come in, what these effects will produce results? the past two years the stock market was too high, the property market has also been pushed up, in such circumstances, anything can happen, depending on the government economic wisdom, to see whether in this regard an effective response measures.
】 【Moderator: You just talked about a point of view, the U.S. financial crisis is very serious. then the United States Government has just launched the ; the company's rescue plan, in which case, the U.S. government bailout will succeed it?
avoid the economic crisis is the key to economic decision-making
】 【Han is hard to say the same, resulting in the present phenomenon, In fact, the U.S. government is to blame. Greenspan was raising interest rates relatively good regulation of the economy by cutting interest rates and, in fact, is key to economic decision-making. I do not think the U.S. Government in this round of economic change can be taken as the So the old wisdom and the mind frame adjustments and changes, and even we did not see the measures taken by the United States Government of events, there was a clear improvement. like last pulled 17 times the rate hike, the U.S. government the means to regulate the economy in fact less than we, because they are more market-oriented operation. now take a lot of an administrative means to save the city and rescue, in which case we are not very good assessment. Japan's financial crisis was also caused by the housing slump, But if there is an error, then adopt policies that would cause the bank closed down. I do not know why the U.S. government adopted a series of these measures will still appear after the closure of the crisis in a series, I think it is unprecedented to save their city, but still save not. I saw an inspection tour of some experts say the United States sub-prime, sub-accounts for the proportion is very small, and why something so small instruments through banks extend to what extent the final amplification, we are more difficult to understand. now spend so a great effort and intensity, have no way to control and resolve, and even spread and impact of the global financial and economic. I am afraid that there must review the U.S. government's financial policies and economic policies, now is the U.S. presidential election, I do not think they At this time there will be reasonable measures and corresponding measures, the Chinese government should learn a lesson. the economic crisis is certainly changing factors certainly exist, as if the seasons, this is a very natural law, but whether each This economic crisis will bring consequences, leading to 158-year history of the bank this year to make life difficult, in my opinion was originally a very small bucket would go through, and this we should learn a lesson.
】 【Moderator: United States The financial crisis which will impact on the real estate industry, can not specifically talk about how influential it? what it will affect?
Check out the impact of the influx of real estate should not be underestimated
Han with 】: I think the U.S. financial crisis in hand, as China has a reason, China If after the economic crisis, some say that the American cause. Of course, we can not rule out King financial crisis influence on the world of, but China itself is actually the is not optimistic, the stock market, and exports have collapsed, investment and consumption can not be certain of it? Another aspect is the price, now or in the stock market after prices began to fall. If either to stabilize housing prices The word is not enough to keep house prices slow down, even without U.S. financial crisis because we will be able to form their own financial crisis. originally said the economy to prevent overheating, do not feel this year found that head, and half a year among the general direction of economic policies are adjusted several times. began a two defense, prevent the economy from overheating and prevent inflation; Central held a special working session of the capital market after the proposed governance, stable real estate market, and effectively guard against financial risk; now become a guarantee of a control, just This goal is very contradictory, is a spear with a shield which strong? question is how much you want to protect, control number, which is difficult in the implementation of the specific implementation to ensure you of what controls what, it is more difficult to balance things, I do not think this is a good adjustment of the Strategy. The collapse of Lehman Brothers is only the direct impact of our bank to buy their stocks and bonds, I think the greatest impact is psychological. These investment giant may change their investment in China strategy, I recently read in the media and many foreign hunters, it is clear the behavior of foreign investors that hunters would be the impact. have been bargain-hunting is also something that is not a good situation, if the market is able to attract people to your attention, but also able to keep some money, this is perhaps a good thing. happens with this wave will also be withdrawn, we have been entrusted the property market was very high, what to go try to jack, so that the property market will not fall too fast? Although we do not exist in the U.S. sub-prime lending structure and factors, we will be affected by economic and real estate as a great influence. In fact, not too many people who purchase high, a large number of investment funds are to enter; now room When prices fall, in fact, a lot of local demand for owner-occupied has not been a huge impact. Therefore, the ability to undertake periodic bottom of the market there, just not had the time in the hot rising so fierce. The present situation is not only widely deep market fluctuations, and second-tier cities Beijing and Shanghai have also been entered into the wave of price cuts, and even appeared as Shanghai and Hangzhou, because the price of the check-out tide, the impact of these on the property and the impact is not to be underestimated .
】 【Moderator: I have a question, why developers have to wait for the government to save it? property prices may go down a little bit as long as there will be traded, the developers do not need to wait for government rescue, self-help can be solved part of the capital back problem. Do you agree with this view.
adjustment policies on the three secondary mortgage beneficial
】 【Han with: real estate industry's rescue measures, not, as some said to take place money out. like this cut in interest rates, in fact, a considerable impact on the small estate on the floor for people is to reduce the burden of hundreds of dollars for the building. But developers do not have more than five years of development loans, are short-term. But developers are not actually affect the cost of credit problems, high interest rate private loans that he is willing to take, the question is, could be obtained, can weather the crisis. What is most important is the credit scale, even this small amount of financial institutions, a point down the reserve, increasing the size of their loans will not be entirely on the developer or real estate direction, will not turn to developers. Now the real estate industry requires relatively large is a normal sexual development loans or to protect, the normal full compliance with regulations, all documents are complete, the ratio of own funds and to achieve, I think this is a reasonable demand. Of course, it also over-expansion of some enterprises, there is need to the appropriate master and control, and now becomes a concern and strong corporate finance capacity up to the strongest, while the weak even more weak companies.
the size of credit with the Bank prior to the excessive use of the deposit reserve ratio of the control tools of a great relationship, interest rates ten times last year and ten times the deposit reserve ratio control is two-pronged; and not to raise interest rates within six months of this year but keep raising the deposit reserve ratio. the original adjustment will not cause too direct effect, the final cumulative effect would be particularly obvious, which is raised over the issue of the credit scale. There is also a policy is the policy of 9.27 a year ago, the second mortgage policy is obviously too stringent, and to improve type included in owner-occupied buyers to limits. If this is the first time home buyers are not in place, would like to re-adjustment in the policy above, and now the industry's strongest appeal is to this one. This policy adjustment on the central bank is concerned, just a face-saving issue. But in terms of the whole industry, including the financial sector is beneficial for developers and good for the consumers benefit, and even beneficial to banks. In fact, the most effective part of the demand for this part of the rigid people's housing affordability policy but was locked out, this policy does blow a lot of investment by speculative buyers of bank loans, while limiting these people, now want policy change is to activate this part of the purchase demand. In fact, such a market in the current, they are the most powerful home buyers, first time home buyers to purchase than their ability. If we delay until the market is really not the time to stress you might not buy them, and now The housing market prices so high, if it relies on first-time buyers can not afford to buy, then certainly support this market.
】 【Moderator: listening to your point of view, in fact, be appropriate to revise the regulation too strict and inappropriate policies of the past the Government has been added to the yoke of the property market, now dismantled piece by piece. And in this case developers should do something about it? such as Vanke price surge caused by the check-out how to do?
consumers quality and enhance market-oriented yet to be Han with
【】: Vanke's price promotions, most recently in Shanghai and Hangzhou, the situation of turmoil caused by the check-out, I would like Vanke little surprise. I was so looking , brand damage and temporary crisis of survival with Vanke is not directly related, cash is king Vanke cheap promotional strategy is quite sensible, but may be markets that area of Jiangsu and Zhejiang psychological ability of consumers and market qualities underestimated. Vanke in Guangzhou on the very successful price promotion strategy, such as Vanke Golden homes, in fact, the opening twenty thousand five, and finally sold seventeen thousand, no one make trouble. Therefore, the pressure in Guangzhou Vanke sales most small regional markets. In fact, the project in Guangzhou Vanke has no pressure to cut prices, even now in Guangzhou Vanke no longer playing under the banner of lower prices in gold and silver October September launched a total of 600 sets only the volume, There are 200 sets of which are commercial units, 200 units is the unit outer suburbs. Vanke in the Yangtze River Delta is now encountered some resistance, whether to adjust the strategy? I saw Pan Shiyi, the analysis of this is sure, he thought Vanke north low prices almost invincible, invincible, and can hit the north from the south, as the lead in each city is the first low-cost promotions, who pooled money to come here; now, although there is a negative impact, but did not hinder the Vanke will continue to advance this strategy. However, I still work to be appropriate or necessary to appease, even spiritual comfort in this regard is the need to communicate with consumers, you If taken to intensify the conflict over the practice, consequences or problems are not small. I see some articles describing the online property market in the stock market as the year began, people lack the mental capacity to make is worthy of condemnation; and now that consumers should do some soul trouble following, why not cool when the high point, why would you have it? In fact, there is both a reflection process should be.
【 ],[Jiliuyongtui this wind it?
foreign real estate bargain-hunting operations would be reduced
】 【Han with: Actually, I saw some media reports, bargain-hunting foreign investors into the real estate market is very interested in, just that they think this is a better market access. before the storm and the crisis is not so obvious, if there is such a big shock, or impact of such a big case, I believe these funds will be observed to see if this will go down. After a storm After shocks, then hunters, then the bottom may be more solid. Now the process, I believe many people will take an observation and see the situation.
】 【Moderator: Assuming these funds waiting to see the Chinese real estate market or simply to withdraw, which is more difficult issue of real estate financing is worse. financing will further exacerbate the difficulties it?
present the possibility of relaxing the size of a small real estate credit
】 【Han with: I think it is inevitable, no matter whether the domestic A shares, or Hong Kong stock market, that it is not ideal, in order to finance through the stock market, this route is broken; bond financing, the general success of private enterprise seems more difficult to apply that we see each Vanke, Poly and have applied for several billion; general real estate business in addition to the normal development of the loans, I think the general market only through the channel to return the funds. the original count on the transfer of shares or projects to develop, in the current situation the following, even if capable, cost and cost will be particularly great. especially the relatively high prices obtained for early projects, some to the king class of the project, basically you do not do substantial concessions , no one will work with you. unless the money is very strong, and if funds are not strong, then the relatively good choice or return the funds through the market, so there will be a direct effect, will be a reliable number. waiting for the banks to you relax, I think that the possibility now seems very small, just to maintain normal development on the bad loans. Even to maintain the normal development of the loan, if the market decline is not enough. enterprise banking solution up to one-third of funding sources, one-third of its own funds to address the rest have to rely on market solutions, a shrinking market, in fact, difficult to maintain the.
】 【Moderator: the current economic situation changes, the developers before the development of the National Day Golden Week Marketing planning and adjusting to do, experts predicted the market National Day Golden Week will change it?
after skyrocketing housing prices may also be a smooth one level down the Han with
【】: even without the financial crisis spread to the U.S. and impact of the real estate market in Guangzhou ten gold nine silver face a second round of price adjustment pressures, or the return of funds from the developer and the impulse performance of pressure or pressure from the market demand. because of the Guangzhou property market has been stable for a long period, if it continues to remain stable, not that it will not go on, but may re-enter the volume shrinkage of the pattern. If you wait until a serious shrinking turnover was adjusted to be difficult to maintain good volume outcome. I think the decline in housing prices in Guangzhou very well under the first stage, the second stage can not occur, or can not be formed? This is indeed a very critical step, to see nine gold ten silver can promote some positive . Vanke this will certainly not be taking the lead sheep, because the volume of the pressure is very small. I still do not see a substantial lead in price of real estate, are relatively small. This kind of price effect can be, but the price may not be able to maintain and stabilize a very long stage, there may be no end of opinions about, or simply a crash in the end. If, after skyrocketing housing prices in Guangzhou can make, but also can smooth a level down, is the most ideal state and results. Now, housing prices have skyrocketed did not control, we are faced with this result is how to choose the best outcome, I believe that fulfilling such a possibility. now bring some uncertain factors, One is from the United States, there is a central bank move. I saw someone online interpretation of developers to the central bank and government initiatives drinking to celebrate. of such minor policy adjustments, would give him such great hope This may be less willing to face reality is the developer of the results. I would think that the central bank to cut interest rates and no special attention to real estate, I think it is a means of short-term response. At present our economy is in a situation of stagflation, Only a small increase in the fall of inflation, and even the conditions for interest rates still exists, should be at least this year, the average CPI was above 6%, so it is still real negative interest rates. Why do central banks to take such measures, can not achieve this effect is obvious for ? this is to be seen. There are many claims, but a rate cut out of bank stocks was very severe, the entire stock market also fell. But if do not do this measure is not likely to fall even more miserable and more fierce? We Another possible outcome of re-evolution, which is impossible. I have always felt that it is not yet the situation of deflation, because the cut is only appropriate for conditions of deflation tool, is not it wait till then had been no tools to use? If the reserve ratio down is the adjustment of excessive use of the past, not to say that really had the time to let him down, but the original should not rise so much, now risen so much, now adjusted to place. a lot of people interpreted as a comprehensive relax monetary policy statement, I think that may not be the case, too steep, and I think that the only amendments and emergency.
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